Nitrogen Oxides Emissions, Abatement Technologies and Related Costs for Europe in the RAINS Model Database

This paper describes the module of the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model dealing with the potential and costs for controlling emissions of nitrogen oxides. The paper discusses the selected aggregation level of the emission generating activities and reviews the major options for controlling NOx emissions. Algorithms for estimating emission control costs for stationary and mobile sources are presented. The cost calculation distinguishes 'general' (i.e., valid for all countries) and 'country-specific' parameters in order to capture characteristic technology- and site-specific factors influencing the actual costs of applying a certain measure under a given condition. The methodology is illustrated by two examples for typical control technologies (combustion modification together with selective catalytic reduction for power plant boilers and catalytic converters for cars). Finally, the method for constructing emission batement cost curves showing the relationships between the level of remaining emissions and the associated cost is explained. The general parameters used for cost calculation are presented in the main body of the report, while all country-specific parameters are contained in a number of appendices. Furthermore, energy scenarios as they are currently implemented in the RAINS model and the resulting cost curves for NOx control related to these energy scenarios are presented in these annexes

Sulfur Emissions, Abatement Technologies and Related Costs for Europe in the RAINS Model Database

This paper describes the part of the Regional Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model dealing with the potential and costs controlling emissions of sulfur dioxide. The paper describes the selected aggregation level of the emission generating activities and reviews the major options for controlling SO2 emissions. An algorithm for estimating emission control costs is presented. The cost calculation distinguishes 'general'(i.e., valid for all countries) and 'country-specific' parameters in order to capture characteristic technology- and site-specific factors influencing the actual costs of applying a certain measure under a given condition. The methodology is illustrated by two examples for typical control technologies (wet flue gas desulfurization and the use of low-sulfur gas oil). Finally, the method for constructing emission abatement cost curves showing the relationships between the level of remaining emissions and the associated costs is explained. The general parameters used in the cost calculations are presented in the main body of the report, while all country-specific parameters are contained in a number of appendices. In addition, these country-specific appendices present the energy scenarios as they are currently implemented in the RAINS model, and the resulting cost curves for SO2 control related to these energy scenarios

Emissions from households and other small combustion sources and their reduction potential

To explore the potential contribution of Eco-design product standards to the achievement of the targets of the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution, this report develops different scenarios for implementations of more stringent emission limit values to small combustion sources. In 2005, small sources of solid fuel combustion contributed about one third to total EU-27 emissions of fine particles (PM2.5) and black carbon (BC), and less than 10% to total non.methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx). For PM2.5, it is estimated that an implementation of Eco-design standards would lead to significant reductions of emissions from small sources compared to the baseline projection. If the discussed Eco-design standards were only introduced for air pollution emissions (without requirements for improved energy efficiencies), PM2.5 from these sources would decline by 38% in 2020 relative to 2005 level (compared to a 21% cut in the current legislation case). By 2030, the Eco-design standards would reduce PM2.5 emission by 70% relative to 2005 (the current legislation only by 40%), and in 2050 these standards would lead to 83% lower emissions, while the baseline results in only 50% relative to 2005. These calculations assume no premature scrapping of existing equipment. These emission reductions would account for a sizeable fraction of the total PM2.5 emissions from all sectors in the EU-27. In 2020, introduction of the Eco-design standards would cut total PM2.5 by 7%, in 2030 by 16%, and in 2050 by almost 20%. Black carbon emissions from small combustion sources, which have recently received increasing attention because of their negative health and climate effects, would be reduced by the Eco-design standards by 25% in 2020 and by 75% in 2050. Although small combustion sources make only limited contributions to NMVOC emissions (8% in 2005), Eco-design standards could reduce these emissions in 2020 by 50% relative to 2005 (compared to a 25% cut envisaged for the baseline), by 80% instead of 50% in 2030, and by more than 90% compared to 60% in 2050. Even larger emission reductions can be achieved if Eco-design standards would also affect energy efficiency standards, as highlighted by a scenario with ambitious assumptions on energy efficiency improvements for small sources. However, this scenario assumes rapid turnover of existing (inefficient) devices including premature scrapping before the end of its regular lifetime. In reality, such a scenario would be difficult to realize in the short run, since it would require a very fast replacement of the existing capital stock by new equipment and unlimited availability of pellets

The Potential for further Control of Emissions of Fine Particulate Matter in Europe

This report examines the possible evolution of emissions of primary particulate matter in Europe up to 2020 as a consequence of further economic development and progressing implementation of emission control legislation, in particular of the Protocols that also influence primary emissions of PM. Furthermore, it explores the potential for further PM emission reductions through extensions of the existing protocols (i) to additional countries, (ii) by stricter emission limit values, and (iii) to other sectors. Based on the implementation of the RAINS model as it was used for the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) program of the European Commission, the report analyses three emission control cases: (i) the situation in the year 2000, (ii) the current legislation case for 2020, and (iii) a case with further control measures. Results are presented for three groups of countries: (i) the 15 old Member States of the European Union, Norway and Switzerland, (ii) the 10 new Member States, and (iii) the other countries in Europe including the European area of Russia and Turkey. The analysis concludes that primary emissions of PM are expected to decline in the future due to current legislation, between 2000 and 2020 by approx. 40-45 percent in the EU-25 and by 8-9 percent in the non-EU countries. Tightened emission limit values in a potential revision of the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols would have a relatively small effect on total PM emissions in 2020, especially if the protocols would not receive ratifications from additional Parties. In the EU-25, PM2.5 emissions would decline in 2020 at maximum by an additional 7 percent if the most advanced technical measures were implemented. A significantly larger reduction potential could be harvested through ratification and subsequent implementation of the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols by additional Parties. This could reduce PM2.5 emissions in the non-EU countries by up to 25 percent in 2020 compared to the current legislation situation. While the Heavy Metals and Gothenburg Protocols contain obligations for PM emissions from certain emission sources, in 2020 the majority of PM emissions is expected to originate from sources for which these protocols do not specify emission limit values. For the EU-25, about 80 percent of the identified technical potential for further PM reductions emerges from sources that are not covered in the Protocols. In the non-EU countries, more than 60 percent of the technical reduction potential relates to these sources. Approximately two thirds of this technical reduction potential from the non-protocol sectors emerge from small non-industrial combustion sources, especially wood and coal stoves

The last decade of global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide: 2000-2011 emissions

The evolution of global and regional anthropogenic SO2 emissions in the last decade has been estimated through a bottom-up calculation. After increasing until about 2006, we estimate a declining trend continuing until 2011. However, there is strong spatial variability, with North America and Europe continuing to reduce emissions, with an increasing role of Asia and international shipping. China remains a key contributor, but the introduction of stricter emission limits followed by an ambitious program of installing flue gas desulfurization on power plants resulted in a significant decline in emissions from the energy sector and stabilization of total Chinese SO2 emissions. Comparable mitigation strategies are not yet present in several other Asian countries and industrial sectors in general, while emissions from international shipping are expected to start declining soon following an international agreement to reduce the sulfur content of fuel oil. The estimated trends in global SO2 emissions are within the range of representative concentration pathway (RCP) projections and the uncertainty previously estimated for the year 2005

Alternative Policies for the Control of Air Pollution in Poland

Like other Central European countries, Poland faces the twin challenges of improving environmental quality while also promoting economic development. This study examines the cost of achieving alternative emission standards and the savings in abatement cost that might be achieved with policies that rely on economic incentives rather than with rigid " command and control " measures. The focus is primarily on three pollutants arising from energy combustion - particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide - although carbon dioxide emissions also are tracked. A central element of the analysis is a dynamic model of least-cost energy supply in Poland that allows examination at a national level of effects of different pollution standards and policies

GHG Mitigation Potentials and Costs in the Transport Sector of Annex I Countries: Methodology, Version 2

This report documents the specific methodology of IIASA's GAINS model for emissions from transport activities that has been used for comparing mitigation efforts across Annex I Parties. Additional information sources are available at gains.iiasa.ac.at/Annex1.htm